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do you ever find yourself looking out of the plane of a window a window of a plane at night and marveling at the strange beauty of our illuminated world I do in less than. 140 years we've gone from the invention of an a single electric light bulb to a planet filled with light time and numa nation illumination it's incredibly beautiful and in. Many ways feels magical and completely unimaginable to anyone who lived 200 years ago lurking behind this magic beauty and improved. Quality of life is the largest contributor to global warming electricity consumption accounts for 30 percent of carbon emissions in. The United States it took us a. Hundred years to get here the question is can we turn it. Around and get to zero carbon energy in the next hundred yes absolutely we can we can get there much less time clean energy is realistic it's absolutely necessary to maintain our quality of life and the changes in the electricity industry are already in motion to make this. Happen I'm Natalie music director of product management at Oracle Utilities formerly o power for the past seven years I've been leading teams to build software for utilities to help engage their customers reduce overall energy usage and I'd like to share with you my perspective on. How the utility industry is evolving to meet the needs of the clean energy future there are three key forces driving this change and these slides are my old slides. So I'm gonna have to wing it a little bit so there's right sorry the first the first one is is energy generation we're shifting from fossil fuel generation to renewables the second one is an increase in electricity usage as we switch over from gas-powered cars to electric cars and the. Third one is that that government regulations will continue to increase alongside these market forces to regulate changes so I'm going to skip forward a little bit here so first building renewable capacity is finally cheaper than building new coal or nuclear power plants in the past year over 2/3. Of new power capacity came from renewables across the globe this is a huge milestone and these new sources come with additional challenges wind and solar and are. Increasingly are highly intermittent while coal and nuclear have long been the stability and stability and source of consistent energy throughout the grid and underlying these trends is the decrease in the cost of solar in the last half-century so. In 1973 the first Solar roof was built at three hundred dollars a watt this is literally off the chart last year one percent of the u.s. generation came from solar at a price point of just over a dollar a watt and by 2040 you. Expect that ten percent of u.s. generation will come from solar when you add in the. Cost of new construction new renewables currently kill new coal plants and I expect within twenty five years will kill new new natural gas plants as well sorry another powerful force is government policy so we're obviously in a dark time when it comes to environmental policy but in. 2012 Obama passed the clean power plan that requires utilities to cut their carbon by one-third by 2030 now Trump as long as Trump does not tear that down this. Will help hasten the end. Of coal policy it's already driven real change to illustrate this change let's look at California a state that's long long led energy policy energy with energy policy starting in the 70s they were able to stop the increase of per capita growth per capita consumption growth by the early 80s national policy did not achieve these results until 2000. Now the policies which made this happen were many and the specifics of them are very critical as well as their timing which I will not have time to go into right now but we expected this per. Capita in capita consumption is about to increase why this year GM and Volvo announced that they will be cutting production of gas only vehicles to zero within 10 years thanks to companies like Tesla and government rebates on electric cars we've seen a huge drop to produce electric vehicles making them cost. Competitive with gas-powered vehicles so a little history electric cars have had some fits and starts over the last century did you know that in 1905 nearly one-third of cars manufactured in the US for electric and in 1920 they were dead due to the Ford Model T then in. The 90s GM built the next wave and killed them by the late 90s last year there were 2 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States now predictions vary but we expect that there are there may be as many as 70 million electric cars and trucks on the. Road by 2040 and what this means is a greatly increased demand for electricity and the increase in that per capita in some consumption additionally building energy is shifting toward electricity as we're seeing space heating and water heating becoming cheaper and more efficient sources of electricity so now what does this all the mean for the electric utility so. I'm gonna skip back slides to where this one so the traditional utility model is one of building and maintaining large-scale infrastructure so you've got power plants to generate electricity transmission towers and distribution lines to move that energy and. With the primary goal of serving the right amount of electricity at the right time to every customer at the lowest cost so. That's your classic model and these changeable moving to renewable switching to increase of electricity usage for. Vehicles increasing demand is shifting this somewhat linear straight forward model to one that is much more complex distributed and dynamic there we go so what our utilities doing they are beginning to invest in renewable arge renewable sources to replace their gas coal. And nuclear power plants adding battery storage to the infrastructure so that they can have that an electricity when they need it of these intermittent sources solar energy will be distributed throughout commercial and residential buildings in some places it will have its own storage and other places it won't and so the the big challenge here is to integrate. All of this data from these distributed. Sources and and to predict and analyze in order to have a smooth energy energy on the grid sorry so weather modeling is gonna be critical and to effectively provide these services utilities are going to need access to additional data that they don't. Have today but don't have these data because they live behind the meter so there's solar generation data electric vehicle usage thermostat set points. These currently aren't available to utilities but in order to be able to manage the flow of energy on this whole grid they're going to need that need access to that data so an electrification front with the increase in electric vehicles and consumption of buildings that we're. Gonna have an overall per capita demand increase which means you're going to need more supply charging infrastructure is already being built beginning and so they'll have large charging infrastructure a large-scale charging stations and like solar that charging has community going to be distributed throughout the can consumers sphere as well. So key to all of this is delivering electricity at the right time for the right price so in order to. Control the flow of electricity rates will largely be based on particular times of day based on demand and supply um in order to help. Balance the flow of flow of electricity on the grid and so in the next few years we also expect that automakers will make cars that can discharge energy back to the grid so utilities will not have to work. With car owners to help help them store energy and use it back to the grid when it's needed so all of this all of this has really big real human impacts it's complicated to understand and manage so we consumers are becoming electricity providers. Charging our cars at home and increasingly becoming dependent on home electronics for automated climate controls as well as. Restocking our refrigerators so people will spend more of their money on electricity the price of that electricity will largely depend on the time of day that electricity is used and now when a blackout happens you not only lose your lights and your refrigeration you lose your. Mobility you lose more of their heating in your house and you lose your shopping list so utilities are responsible for keeping our society rolling along smoothly and as we switched from fossil fuels to electricity those large gas and oil companies Shell and Exxon begin to disappear electric utilities. Take on more power and responsibility so it's this increase in prominence sophistication and relationship with customers that I see is one of the most important changes happening in the utility industry today and it happens to be the area that I focus on. Every day in my daily life and you could too because we are hiring it at over hour so zooming back out to the big picture all of this means. A lifetime of hard work us and everyone in the millions of people around the world are working everyday to make these to give momentum to these forces of change and it's making a big difference the cost of renewables batteries and clean. Energy vehicles are enough to keep those. Markets moving forward and growing without government support but of course government can speed things up or slow them down and the electric utilities with some challenges that they have that are solvable they already have the infrastructure to deliver renewable energy to where it's needed so this this clean energy evolution. Is happening and. I have hoped that. The next generation will be able to have a full revolution to a sustainable society thank you.

 


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